Forecast feed
Latest EUR/USD forecast pushed from the R Markdown report
Forecast Snapshot
EUR/USD Multi-Horizon Forecast
Report date: 2026-05-05 14:57:29 EAT · Source: r_markdown
Daily bias: Bearish with range 1.16305 to 1.17158 | Weekly bias: Neutral with target close 1.16972 | Monthly bias: Bearish with structural range 1.14157 to 1.20236 | Imbalance layer active: Active bearish fvg above price can act as an upside magnet/retrace objective. | Intraday source used: kraken | Sessions active: Asian, London, New York | Calendar flow tracked: Friday, Month End, Week End, Week Open | Session handoff analysis active.
Forecast mode: dxy_adjusted
Intraday source: kraken (requested auto)
Bias Overview
Daily
Bearish
1.16305 to 1.17158
Weekly
Neutral
1.16052 to 1.18511
Monthly
Bearish
1.14157 to 1.20236
Horizon Levels
| Horizon | Bias | Forecast Close | Projected Low | Projected High | Support | Resistance | RSI | Imbalance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Bearish | 1.16732 | 1.16305 | 1.17158 | 1.16511 | 1.16986 | 50.0 | Active bearish fvg above price can act as an upside magnet/retrace objective. |
| Weekly | Neutral | 1.16972 | 1.16052 | 1.18511 | 1.17392 | 1.18511 | 51.7 | Active bullish fvg below price leaves rebalance/support risk underneath. |
| Monthly | Bearish | 1.16602 | 1.14157 | 1.20236 | 1.14157 | 1.20236 | 58.2 | Only distant, stale, oversized, or already-filled imbalance zones were found, so they were excluded from the active forecast context. |
Imbalance Context
Daily
0.03%
Active bearish fvg above price can act as an upside magnet/retrace objective.
Bullish below: fvg 1.15835-1.16511
Bearish above: fvg 1.16986-1.17193
Weekly
-0.03%
Active bullish fvg below price leaves rebalance/support risk underneath.
Bullish below: fvg 1.16266-1.17392
Bearish above: None
Monthly
0.00%
Only distant, stale, oversized, or already-filled imbalance zones were found, so they were excluded from the active forecast context.
Bullish below: None
Bearish above: None
Session Imbalance Summary
| Session | Type | Side | Status | Distance | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian | fvg | bearish | pending | 18.9 | 1.16950 to 1.17189 |
| London | fvg | bearish | pending | 19.1 | 1.16958 to 1.17178 |
| New York | fvg | bearish | pending | 25.7 | 1.17160 to 1.17187 |
Imbalance Zones
| Timeframe | Type | Side | Status | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Size (pips) | Distance (pips) | Created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | fvg | bearish | pending | 1.16986 | 1.17193 | 20.7 | 17.2 | 2026-05-05 |
| Daily | fvg | bullish | pending | 1.15835 | 1.16511 | 67.6 | 74.5 | 2026-04-08 |
| Weekly | fvg | bullish | partial | 1.16266 | 1.17392 | 112.6 | 8.9 | 2026-04-19 |
| Weekly | range_void | bullish | partial | 1.15780 | 1.16752 | 97.2 | 65.2 | 2026-04-12 |
| Monthly | fvg | bullish | pending | 1.09545 | 1.10751 | 120.6 | 677.0 | 2025-05-29 |
| Monthly | fvg | bullish | filled | 1.09471 | 1.10028 | 55.6 | 716.8 | 2024-09-30 |
| Monthly | fvg | bearish | filled | 1.09334 | 1.10028 | 69.4 | 723.7 | 2024-11-29 |
| Monthly | fvg | bearish | filled | 1.06264 | 1.07626 | 136.2 | 997.3 | 2024-12-31 |
DXY Context
Daily
Neutral
DXY bias Bullish
DXY close 98.470 · RSI 47.2
EUR/USD adjustment -0.07%
Weekly
Neutral
DXY bias Neutral
DXY close 98.470 · RSI 48.3
EUR/USD adjustment 0.01%
Monthly
Bearish
DXY bias Bullish
DXY close 98.470 · RSI 43.4
EUR/USD adjustment -0.12%
Horizon Comparison
| Horizon | Model | Bias | Forecast Close | Projected Low | Projected High | DXY Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Price-only | Neutral | 1.16816 | 1.16390 | 1.17243 | 0.00% |
| Weekly | Price-only | Neutral | 1.16957 | 1.16037 | 1.18511 | 0.00% |
| Monthly | Price-only | Bearish | 1.16743 | 1.14157 | 1.20236 | 0.00% |
| Daily | DXY-adjusted | Bearish | 1.16732 | 1.16305 | 1.17158 | -0.07% |
| Weekly | DXY-adjusted | Neutral | 1.16972 | 1.16052 | 1.18511 | 0.01% |
| Monthly | DXY-adjusted | Bearish | 1.16602 | 1.14157 | 1.20236 | -0.12% |
Simulation Models
| Horizon | Model | Bullish Probability | Median Close | P10 | P90 | Move SD | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Baseline | 47.12% | 1.16883 | 1.16242 | 1.17550 | 0.44% | None |
| Weekly | Baseline | 54.90% | 1.17052 | 1.15721 | 1.18409 | 0.89% | None |
| Monthly | Baseline | 56.02% | 1.17300 | 1.14206 | 1.20497 | 2.10% | None |
| Daily | Refined | 46.97% | 1.16882 | 1.16383 | 1.17598 | 0.45% | None |
| Weekly | Refined | 51.47% | 1.16939 | 1.15744 | 1.18310 | 0.97% | None |
| Monthly | Refined | 56.79% | 1.17377 | 1.14430 | 1.20330 | 1.93% | None |
| Daily | Bootstrap | 47.52% | 1.16884 | 1.16379 | 1.17619 | 0.46% | None |
| Weekly | Bootstrap | 51.76% | 1.16971 | 1.15564 | 1.18478 | 1.02% | None |
| Monthly | Bootstrap | 55.66% | 1.17269 | 1.14244 | 1.20448 | 2.08% | None |
| Daily | Regime-Aware | 45.06% | 1.16880 | 1.16404 | 1.17432 | 0.38% | neutral |
| Weekly | Regime-Aware | 47.58% | 1.16858 | 1.15658 | 1.18221 | 0.86% | neutral |
| Monthly | Regime-Aware | 47.59% | 1.16791 | 1.14335 | 1.19475 | 1.72% | neutral |
Session Forecasts
Asian
Bearish
21:00-9:00 UTC
Date 2026-05-05
Prior New York Bullish
Close 1.16880
Range 1.16752 to 1.17011
Context from prior New York session (Bullish, bullish_continuation).
London
Bearish
7:00-16:00 UTC
Date 2026-05-05
Prior Asian Bearish
Close 1.16877
Range 1.16675 to 1.17059
Context from prior Asian session (Bearish, bearish_continuation).
New York
Bearish
12:00-21:00 UTC
Date 2026-05-04
Prior London Bearish
Close 1.16916
Range 1.16642 to 1.17137
Context from prior London session (Bearish, bearish_continuation).
Session definitions:
Asian 21:00-9:00 UTC ·
London 7:00-16:00 UTC ·
New York 12:00-21:00 UTC
Session Handoffs
| Session | Compared To | Reached Prior High | Reached Prior Low | Broke Prior High | Broke Prior Low | Followed Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian | New York | 57.14% | 42.86% | 57.14% | 42.86% | 28.57% |
| London | Asian | 50.00% | 50.00% | 37.50% | 50.00% | 62.50% |
| New York | London | 57.14% | 57.14% | 42.86% | 42.86% | 71.43% |
Regime-Aware Session Handoffs
| Session | Regime | Follow Rate | Reached Prior High | Reached Prior Low | Broke Prior High | Broke Prior Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian | bearish_continuation | 50.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Asian | bullish_continuation | 25.00% | 75.00% | 25.00% | 75.00% | 25.00% |
| Asian | bullish_stretch | 0.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| London | bearish_continuation | 50.00% | 33.33% | 66.67% | 16.67% | 66.67% |
| London | bullish_continuation | 100.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| New York | bearish_continuation | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| New York | bullish_continuation | 60.00% | 80.00% | 40.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% |
Push Metadata
Created: 2026-05-05 11:57:35 UTC
Symbol: EURUSD
Payload size: 25497 chars
Origin: R Markdown knit push
DXY bias: Bullish
Intraday source: kraken
SHA-256: d3dbdd4d937aaedf60ac6d68397b8007f2659f806919c4be0840b157a8589071
Signature valid: No
Calendar Flow Variants
| Variant | Bias | Last Date | Projected Low | Projected High | Avg Next-Day Return | Avg Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | Neutral | 2026-03-27 | 1.15070 | 1.15632 | -0.09% | 0.0063 |
| Month End | Neutral | 2026-05-05 | 1.16630 | 1.17206 | -0.06% | 0.0064 |
| Week End | Neutral | 2026-05-05 | 1.16639 | 1.17197 | -0.01% | 0.0062 |
| Week Open | Neutral | 2026-05-05 | 1.16639 | 1.17197 | 0.04% | 0.0062 |